Sat, Mar 12, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 2, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 04 | 217 | 016 | 237 |
| VAN | 213 | 18 | 17 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:44VANSven BaertschiAssists: Ben Hutton, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
- P1 19:01VANDerek DorsettAssists: Bo Horvat, Alexandre Burrows · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 9:17NSHMike FisherAssists: Roman Josi, Shea Weber · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 10:35VANBo HorvatGWGAssists: Yannick Weber, Alexandre Burrows · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 16:20NSHColton SissonsAssists: Roman Josi, Austin Watson · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
- P3 19:11VANDaniel SedinENAssists: Henrik Sedin, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:00NSHFilip Forsberg: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:00VANJake Virtanen: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:00VANJake Virtanen: Boarding2 min
- P1 1:00NSHFilip Forsberg: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:12NSHRyan Ellis: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:01NSHAustin Watson: Interference2 min
- P2 11:40VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:45VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:58VANAlexandre Burrows: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:19NSHMike Ribeiro: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Forsberg10:34
xG 0.53–0.28 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Wilson – Watson – Sissons4:06
xG 0.25–0.03 (91%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen9:06
xG 0.16–0.25 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Fisher – Salomaki – Arvidsson7:53
xG 0.34–0.44 (43%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm7:31
xG 0.51–0.07 (87%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi14:59
xG 0.72–0.79 (48%)attempts 15–14goals 2–2
- Ellis – Bitetto9:34
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Granlund – Baertschi9:05
xG 0.54–0.04 (93%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Vey – Etem – McCann8:44
xG 0.53–0.19 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Burrows – Dorsett – Horvat10:10
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Etem – Granlund – Baertschi2:10
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Weber15:53
xG 0.87–0.15 (85%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Sbisa – Hutton15:03
xG 0.77–0.82 (49%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Biega – Bartkowski9:55
xG 0.02–0.23 (9%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).