Sat, Mar 12, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Washington Capitals 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 212 | 04 | 225 |
| SJS | 111 | 17 | 310 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:16SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Brenden Dillon, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 1:21WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 5:14SJSPatrick MarleauSHAssists: Joel Ward, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 10:12WSHJustin WilliamsAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 0:49SJSJoe PavelskiPPGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 2:51SJSBrenden DillonAssists: Chris Tierney, Roman Polak · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 19:16SJSBrent BurnsENAssists: Joe Pavelski, Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.57 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:02WSHJason Chimera: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:46SJSNick Spaling: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:20SJSBrent Burns: Delaying game2 min
- P2 3:39SJSJoe Thornton: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:19WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:47SJSBrent Burns: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky11:56
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson6:34
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Chimera – Richards – Johansson5:38
xG 0.10–0.18 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Richards – Winnik – Beagle3:17
xG 0.04–0.12 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Schmidt14:10
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner16:06
xG 0.37–0.82 (31%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
- Orpik – Orlov15:06
xG 0.23–0.69 (25%)attempts 12–20goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Donskoi – Karlsson10:18
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Nieto9:55
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Spaling – Tierney9:25
xG 0.25–0.26 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl11:29
xG 0.42–0.60 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun16:39
xG 0.99–0.31 (76%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Polak – Dillon12:31
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Martin – Burns14:02
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).