Sun, Mar 13, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 113 | 210 | 210 | 533 |
| NYR | 119 | 12 | 16 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:56PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 18:06NYRChris KreiderAssists: Derek Stepan, Kevin Klein · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 7:30PITConor ShearyAssists: Justin Schultz · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 8:59NYRDerick BrassardPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Derek Stepan · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 15:55PITConor ShearyAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl, Eric Fehr · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 5:04NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: Jesper Fast, J.T. Miller · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 11:09PITMatt CullenGWGAssists: Dominik Simon, Brian Dumoulin · Deflected, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:21PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.69 xG5–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:13PITOlli Maatta: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:41PITIan Cole: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:18NYRJ.T. Miller: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 19:38NYRRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:52PITPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:24NYRMats Zuccarello: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:01NYRChris Kreider: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:01PITChris Kunitz: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:19PITEric Fehr: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:19NYRDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:36PITIan Cole: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist11:05
xG 1.27–0.26 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Fehr – Kuhnhackl – Sheary3:10
xG 0.26–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 2–0
- Cullen – Rust – Simon3:47
xG 0.03–0.09 (28%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Cullen – Rust – Kuhnhackl6:32
xG 0.32–0.55 (37%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta18:40
xG 1.41–0.61 (70%)attempts 18–21goals 0–1
- Cole – Schultz8:33
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Daley – Dumoulin14:22
xG 0.52–1.14 (31%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Fast – Miller11:43
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Nash – Staal – Stalberg10:16
xG 0.62–0.57 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Moore – Lindberg – Hayes3:22
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello10:01
xG 0.41–0.44 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Yandle11:03
xG 1.12–0.28 (80%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Klein – McDonagh4:24
xG 0.18–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 2–0
- Boyle – Staal9:43
xG 0.60–0.61 (50%)attempts 9–6goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).