Mon, Mar 14, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 19 | 110 | 16 | 325 |
| EDM | 17 | 112 | 011 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:48EDMJordan EberleAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 8:04NSHJames NealAssists: Anthony Bitetto, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 0:31EDMIiro PakarinenAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Mark Fayne · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 0:51NSHJames NealAssists: Shea Weber, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 4:18NSHJames NealGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Calle Jarnkrok · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:08NSHAnthony Bitetto: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:29NSHMiikka Salomaki: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:29EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:20NSHViktor Arvidsson: Holding2 min
- P2 13:37EDMTaylor Hall: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:10EDMLeon Draisaitl: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:47NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00EDMLeon Draisaitl: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Forsberg12:50
xG 0.56–0.28 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen9:39
xG 0.52–0.37 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 3–0
- Wilson – Watson – Sissons5:41
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Salomaki – Arvidsson9:02
xG 0.22–0.51 (30%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Bitetto10:05
xG 0.80–0.16 (84%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi17:16
xG 0.88–0.30 (75%)attempts 23–14goals 1–1
- Ellis – Ekholm16:07
xG 0.25–0.80 (24%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHall – Pakarinen – Draisaitl8:46
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian7:04
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Maroon – Eberle – McDavid12:10
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid2:46
xG 0.01–0.01 (44%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sekera – Clendening2:08
xG 0.06–0.02 (76%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – Nikitin2:02
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – Fayne12:43
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).