Mon, Mar 14, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Winnipeg Jets 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 210 | 110 | 29 | 529 |
| VAN | 07 | 06 | 215 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:28WPGMarko DanoAssists: Tyler Myers, Mathieu Perreault · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 16:45WPGTyler MyersAssists: Scott Kosmachuk, Adam Lowry · Deflected, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 17:40WPGAlexander BurmistrovGWGAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Marko Dano · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 2:53WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.25 xG4–0
- P3 6:45WPGMarko DanoAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Ben Chiarot · Deflected, 0.07 xG5–0
- P3 8:57VANJared McCannAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–1
- P3 19:08VANJake VirtanenUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:53WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:38VANDerek Dorsett: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:40VANDan Hamhuis: Embellishment2 min
- P2 6:40WPGMarko Dano: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:21WPGAdam Lowry: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:04VANAlexandre Grenier: Elbowing2 min
- P3 10:41WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Burmistrov – Dano10:20
xG 1.18–0.16 (88%)attempts 16–3goals 3–0
- Halischuk – Lipon – Copp7:59
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stafford – Scheifele12:09
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Lowry – Kosmachuk9:40
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPostma – Chiarot12:21
xG 1.14–0.24 (82%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Trouba15:27
xG 0.95–0.28 (77%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Myers – Melchiori15:31
xG 0.17–0.67 (20%)attempts 8–15goals 2–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVey – Etem – Baertschi5:05
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Granlund – Baertschi3:28
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Grenier – Horvat3:22
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Vey – Etem – McCann2:52
xG 0.03–0.14 (20%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Bartkowski12:33
xG 0.34–0.16 (69%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev4:16
xG 0.06–0.02 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Bartkowski – Hutton2:42
xG 0.09–0.07 (55%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).