Tue, Mar 15, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Boston Bruins 2, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 210 | 07 | 06 | 223 |
| SJS | 112 | 111 | 14 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:44SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 11:26BOSDavid KrejciAssists: David Pastrnak, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 17:46BOSLoui ErikssonSHAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 11:46SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Tomas Hertl, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 6:37SJSJoonas DonskoiPPGWGAssists: Joel Ward, Brent Burns · Deflected, 0.21 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:06BOSJimmy Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:04BOSDavid Krejci: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:11BOSJimmy Hayes: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P3 10:20SJSJoonas Donskoi: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:37BOSAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestFerraro – Connolly – Acciari5:13
xG 0.21–0.11 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Pastrnak14:12
xG 0.60–0.57 (51%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Stempniak – Marchand10:53
xG 0.32–0.62 (34%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Hayes – Spooner10:42
xG 0.07–1.11 (6%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug14:15
xG 0.43–0.36 (55%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug2:47
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:11
xG 0.01–0.08 (15%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Ward – Nieto10:28
xG 1.17–0.17 (87%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Couture – Donskoi – Karlsson10:11
xG 0.83–0.37 (69%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Zubrus – Spaling – Tierney9:00
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl11:13
xG 0.13–0.36 (27%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun16:05
xG 1.50–0.14 (91%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Polak – Dillon12:21
xG 0.85–0.38 (69%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Martin – Burns15:08
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).