Thu, Mar 17, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Minnesota Wild 4, New Jersey Devils 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 17 | 216 | 432 |
| NJD | 38 | 311 | 16 | 725 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:43NJDDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Travis Zajac · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 1:34NJDMike SisloUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 14:15MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jared Spurgeon · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 17:15NJDReid BoucherAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Jon Merrill · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–3
- P2 2:57NJDDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Tyler Kennedy · Snap, 0.21 xG1–4
- P2 9:42MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P2 12:06NJDAdam HenriqueGWGAssists: Joseph Blandisi · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–5
- P2 12:44NJDMike SisloAssists: Joseph Blandisi, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–6
- P3 4:41MINJustin FontaineAssists: David Jones, Erik Haula · Snap, 0.11 xG3–6
- P3 7:52NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Devante Smith-Pelly, Tyler Kennedy · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–7
- P3 15:55MINMikko KoivuAssists: Charlie Coyle, Zach Parise · Snap, 0.18 xG4–7
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:07NJDJon Merrill: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:32NJDJon Merrill: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:32MINJason Zucker: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:07NJDSergey Kalinin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Niederreiter – Fontaine7:50
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–2
- Koivu – Zucker – Coyle12:15
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Stoll – Jones – Schroeder6:32
xG 0.03–0.03 (48%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Stoll – Vanek – Schroeder3:21
xG 0.06–0.06 (47%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba5:25
xG 0.57–0.21 (74%)attempts 7–2goals 2–1
- Suter – Brodin2:00
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dumba8:08
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Palmieri – Boucher12:19
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Henrique – Smith-Pelly12:58
xG 0.77–0.50 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 2–1
- Ruutu – Gionta – Farnham9:58
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Sislo – Blandisi – Kalinin10:44
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 4–8goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Schlemko – Moore13:09
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Greene – Larsson16:04
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Merrill – Severson10:50
xG 0.62–0.58 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).