Thu, Mar 17, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 07 | 26 | 322 |
| CBJ | 04 | 013 | 111 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:23DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Riley Sheahan, Andreas Athanasiou · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P3 7:16DETHenrik ZetterbergGWGAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.29 xG2–0
- P3 12:35DETDarren HelmUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG3–0
- P3 19:00CBJAlexander WennbergPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.53 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:28CBJWilliam Karlsson: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:09CBJScott Hartnell: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:29DETKyle Quincey: Holding2 min
- P2 5:12DETHenrik Zetterberg: Interference2 min
- P2 18:36CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Holding2 min
- P3 18:49DETBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin9:52
xG 0.73–0.35 (67%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Datsyuk – Tatar – Mantha4:53
xG 0.03–0.17 (16%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Glendening – Athanasiou5:13
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan4:22
xG 0.02–0.37 (5%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser14:17
xG 0.58–0.23 (71%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Green – Smith10:27
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Smith – DeKeyser3:00
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Dubinsky – Foligno4:26
xG 0.51–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Wennberg2:00
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner3:15
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Jenner – Saad3:24
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Jones16:54
xG 1.34–0.50 (73%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Ramage – Murray2:42
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Murray – Jones2:23
xG 0.09–0.39 (19%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).