Thu, Mar 17, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New York Islanders 2, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 114 | 12 | 222 |
| NSH | 112 | 211 | 19 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:15NSHJames NealAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 6:02NYIRyan PulockAssists: John Tavares · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 8:13NSHRyan EllisPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Mattias Ekholm · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 9:54NSHRyan JohansenGWGAssists: James Neal, Anthony Bitetto · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 1:55NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 19:03NSHAustin WatsonENAssists: Mike Fisher, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–4
Penalties (1)
- P2 7:15NYICal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Bernier – Nelson – Prince8:15
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Tavares2:27
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Kulemin – Lee10:36
xG 0.24–0.63 (28%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Strome10:30
xG 0.09–0.53 (15%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Boychuk – Leddy18:19
xG 0.47–0.74 (39%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Hickey – Pulock13:38
xG 0.29–0.61 (32%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- Hamonic – de Haan21:13
xG 0.20–1.32 (13%)attempts 13–24goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Forsberg15:18
xG 1.00–0.20 (83%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson8:46
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen13:48
xG 0.71–0.49 (59%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons6:41
xG 0.06–0.01 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi23:32
xG 1.31–0.28 (83%)attempts 30–14goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm19:01
xG 0.91–0.49 (65%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
- Jackman – Bitetto12:32
xG 0.46–0.20 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).