Thu, Mar 17, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 16 | 210 | 04 | 320 |
| DAL | 17 | 19 | 217 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:15TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Alex Killorn, Andrej Sustr · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 14:09DALJason SpezzaAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 3:15TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anton Stralman · Slap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 5:42DALJamie BennAssists: Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 17:19TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Alex Killorn, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 9:42DALStephen JohnsAssists: Cody Eakin, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 11:50DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Cody Eakin, Tyler Seguin · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:42TBLMike Blunden: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:19DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:19TBLRyan Callahan: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:39DALValeri Nichushkin: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Kucherov17:23
xG 0.93–0.46 (67%)attempts 20–14goals 2–1
- Boyle – Blunden – Condra8:00
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Brown – Paquette8:31
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Callahan – Johnson – Palat9:32
xG 0.09–1.11 (8%)attempts 5–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Hedman2:47
xG 0.47–0.06 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Coburn – Nesterov9:26
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Stralman – Garrison2:00
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Eakin – Seguin4:34
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 13–3goals 2–0
- Hemsky – Roussel – Faksa12:19
xG 0.85–0.39 (68%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Eakin6:35
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Spezza – Sharp – Nichushkin5:23
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Johns18:56
xG 1.06–0.44 (71%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Russell19:37
xG 1.29–0.90 (59%)attempts 25–22goals 3–2
- Nemeth – Oleksiak7:46
xG 0.08–0.35 (19%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).