Thu, Mar 17, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
San Jose Sharks 1, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 04 | 111 | 013 | 128 |
| ARI | 16 | 08 | 28 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:23ARIMichael StoneAssists: Alex Tanguay · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 14:29SJSTomas HertlAssists: Paul Martin, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 18:29ARIShane DoanGWGAssists: Klas Dahlbeck, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 19:06ARIAntoine VermetteENAssists: Michael Stone, Kevin Connauton · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:48ARIMartin Hanzal: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:12ARIMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:12ARIMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:12SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:23SJSDainius Zubrus: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:42SJSTomas Hertl: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Ward – Tierney4:46
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl13:31
xG 0.76–0.49 (61%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Spaling – Tierney7:16
xG 0.28–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Couture – Donskoi – Karlsson11:58
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns16:55
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Braun – Dillon2:11
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun12:18
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Richardson – Domi12:00
xG 0.56–0.35 (61%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Tanguay – Vermette – Duclair10:18
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Gordon – Martinook – Plotnikov9:20
xG 0.19–0.27 (41%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Tikhonov – Rieder13:14
xG 0.29–0.80 (27%)attempts 12–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Dahlbeck14:46
xG 0.66–0.50 (57%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Connauton – Murphy17:43
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Stone16:35
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 9–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).