Fri, Mar 18, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Nashville Predators 1, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 04 | 18 | 09 | 121 |
| WSH | 011 | 310 | 18 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:30NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 7:52WSHDaniel WinnikAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Braden Holtby · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 12:22WSHT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 19:42WSHDaniel WinnikAssists: Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 0:36WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:54WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:33WSHTaylor Chorney: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:52NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:14NSHRyan Johansen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:53WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:02NSHMike Ribeiro: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:02NSHCraig Smith: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 18:57NSHRyan Johansen: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:07NSHShea Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansson won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Jarnkrok – Johansen13:28
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg8:25
xG 0.15–0.09 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons7:51
xG 0.04–0.11 (27%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson9:33
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Ellis10:09
xG 0.45–0.02 (96%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi18:34
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
- Ellis – Ekholm4:22
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky13:04
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Beagle11:14
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Chimera – Williams – Johansson8:50
xG 0.40–0.35 (54%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Richards – Winnik – Wilson8:03
xG 0.03–0.31 (9%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner14:50
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Orpik – Orlov14:49
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
- Chorney – Schmidt10:41
xG 0.11–0.23 (32%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).