Fri, Mar 18, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 4, Calgary Flames 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 15 | 112 | 02 | 1 | 428 |
| CGY | 18 | 213 | 011 | 01 | 0 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:20CGYMatt StajanAssists: Jyrki Jokipakka, TJ Brodie · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 17:19COLErik JohnsonAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 5:17CGYMark GiordanoSHAssists: Josh Jooris, Lance Bouma · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 5:47CGYFreddie HamiltonSHAssists: Lance Bouma · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P2 8:33COLTyson BarrieAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 9:09COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Shawn Matthias, Chris Bigras · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CGY Joe Colborne stopped
- 2. COL Erik Johnson stopped
- 3. CGY Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 4. COL Mikkel Boedker scored
- 5. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:36CGYDeryk Engelland: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:51COLShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:29COLBlake Comeau: High sticking2 min
- OT 3:28CGYJoni Ortio: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:28CGYDougie Hamilton: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Mitchell – Grigorenko12:36
xG 1.40–0.29 (83%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Skille – Matthias4:08
xG 0.81–0.29 (74%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Comeau – Boedker – MacKinnon14:18
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- McLeod – Skille – MacKinnon2:26
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Johnson16:04
xG 1.17–0.40 (74%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Johnson – Bigras3:45
xG 0.73–0.06 (92%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Gelinas – Bigras5:40
xG 0.16–0.04 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Bollig – Jooris9:11
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan11:52
xG 0.54–0.25 (68%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Bouma – Hamilton – Hathaway8:46
xG 0.30–0.10 (74%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Colborne12:38
xG 0.17–1.21 (13%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokipakka – Nakladal11:28
xG 0.39–0.05 (88%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Brodie – Hamilton16:13
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Engelland – Brodie3:04
xG 0.00–0.43 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).