Sat, Mar 19, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 5, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 112 | 37 | 530 |
| FLA | 16 | 211 | 09 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:49FLANick BjugstadAssists: Jiri Hudler · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 18:25DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Brad Richards, Mike Green · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 7:08FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Reilly Smith · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 12:48FLATeddy PurcellAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 19:49DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Gustav Nyquist · Tip-in, 0.27 xG2–3
- P3 3:52DETDylan LarkinAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 8:39DETLuke GlendeningGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Niklas Kronwall · Tip-in, 0.22 xG4–3
- P3 19:23DETPavel DatsyukENAssists: Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.54 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:21FLAJakub Kindl: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:43DETJustin Abdelkader: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:48DETBrendan Smith: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 15:17FLAAlexander Petrovic: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:36FLAAlexander Petrovic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:18DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:18FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:21DETKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:21FLAJussi Jokinen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Glendening – Larkin2:45
xG 0.30–0.10 (76%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan6:30
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Tatar – Mantha3:38
xG 0.11–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Glendening – Athanasiou2:14
xG 0.04–0.05 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson13:42
xG 0.94–0.66 (59%)attempts 11–16goals 2–1
- Green – Smith12:38
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser14:12
xG 0.23–0.51 (32%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov11:59
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Hudler – Purcell – Bjugstad11:19
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck11:14
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Wilson – McKegg – Shaw5:32
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Kampfer10:21
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov2:06
xG 0.03–0.07 (30%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad17:21
xG 0.25–0.44 (37%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).