Sat, Mar 19, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Arizona Coyotes 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 113 | 011 | 112 | 236 |
| ARI | 07 | 013 | 012 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:03TBLOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 19:10TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–0
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:50TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:59ARIMichael Stone: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:10TBLBraydon Coburn: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:44TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:14TBLBrian Boyle: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:58ARIKlas Dahlbeck: Holding2 min
- P2 15:27TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:27ARIMartin Hanzal: Embellishment2 min
- P3 5:56ARIAnthony Duclair: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:56ARIAnthony Duclair: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:56TBLJT Brown: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:56ARIAnthony Duclair: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:30TBLTyler Johnson: Interference2 min
- P3 19:38TBLMatt Carle: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:42ARIShane Doan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Kucherov10:46
xG 0.94–0.34 (73%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Brown – Paquette5:37
xG 0.69–0.11 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Marchessault10:25
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Garrison2:43
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Coburn – Nesterov7:51
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Carle – Sustr3:38
xG 0.08–0.03 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Richardson – Martinook2:02
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Domi7:54
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Gordon – Martinook – Plotnikov5:34
xG 0.04–0.23 (14%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Tikhonov – Rieder9:32
xG 0.30–0.83 (26%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Dahlbeck11:16
xG 0.22–0.05 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Connauton – Murphy12:55
xG 0.49–0.95 (34%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Stone14:11
xG 0.13–1.41 (9%)attempts 5–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).