Sun, Mar 20, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Anaheim Ducks 3, Winnipeg Jets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 111 | 110 | 08 | 14 | 333 |
| WPG | 114 | 17 | 07 | 01 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:29WPGPaul PostmaAssists: Andrew Copp, Scott Kosmachuk · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 16:01ANAJamie McGinnPPAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Hampus Lindholm · Deflected, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 0:20ANARyan KeslerAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 6:26WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Ben Chiarot, Mathieu Perreault · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 4:01ANAJakob SilfverbergGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:14ANAJamie McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:14WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:46WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:28ANADavid Perron: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 12:39ANAJosh Manson: Holding2 min
- P3 5:25WPGBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:33ANAJosh Manson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ritchie2:27
xG 0.22–0.03 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – McGinn3:58
xG 0.17–0.09 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Perry – McGinn – Rakell2:58
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Perron – Pirri – Rakell2:56
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Stoner12:15
xG 0.30–0.15 (66%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm13:42
xG 0.21–0.28 (42%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Despres – Fowler12:41
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Perreault – Scheifele9:23
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Kosmachuk – Copp – De Leo4:11
xG 0.18–0.03 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Stafford – Burmistrov – Petan7:40
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Burmistrov – Scheifele5:23
xG 0.13–0.21 (37%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Trouba17:47
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Postma – Chiarot9:48
xG 0.24–0.10 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Enstrom – Myers17:04
xG 0.15–0.61 (20%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).