Sun, Mar 20, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, New Jersey Devils 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 08 | 114 | 06 | 128 |
| NJD | 15 | 09 | 18 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:32NJDReid BoucherAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 2:43CBJJared BollAssists: Dalton Prout, Gregory Campbell · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 8:38NJDDevante Smith-PellyGWGAssists: Adam Larsson · Tip-in, 0.25 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:53NJDMike Sislo: Holding2 min
- P2 9:48CBJDalton Prout: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:37CBJDavid Savard: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:57NJDSergey Kalinin: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:15NJDStephen Gionta: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:34CBJDavid Savard: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Calvert – Bjorkstrand10:25
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Jenner – Saad12:00
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Karlsson6:49
xG 0.45–0.59 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
- Campbell – Boll – Chaput8:04
xG 0.03–0.26 (10%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Goloubef14:19
xG 0.74–0.33 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Prout – Murray14:07
xG 0.14–0.32 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Savard – Jones15:34
xG 0.41–0.75 (35%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Gionta – Farnham5:32
xG 0.37–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Henrique – Smith-Pelly – Blandisi5:05
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Henrique – Smith-Pelly5:54
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Sislo – Blandisi – Kalinin7:05
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWarsofsky – Mozik10:20
xG 0.61–0.04 (93%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Helgeson – Severson14:18
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson20:27
xG 0.56–0.75 (43%)attempts 10–18goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).