Mon, Mar 21, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 2, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 03 | 09 | 215 | 227 |
| NYR | 18 | 115 | 29 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:15NYRViktor StalbergAssists: Dominic Moore · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 3:33NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 6:51FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Reilly Smith · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 11:14NYRRick NashGWGAssists: Kevin Klein · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 19:24FLAJiri HudlerPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–3
- P3 19:51NYRTanner GlassENAssists: Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:53FLAVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:53NYRDominic Moore: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:31FLAVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:06NYRDerick Brassard: Delaying game2 min
- P2 11:06FLASteven Kampfer: Delaying game2 min
- P3 9:14FLAJonathan Huberdeau: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:59NYRViktor Stalberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck13:58
xG 1.15–0.29 (80%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Hudler – Purcell – Bjugstad12:18
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Wilson – McKegg6:50
xG 0.03–0.12 (19%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov10:44
xG 0.29–0.54 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Kampfer10:06
xG 0.48–0.08 (86%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Campbell – Ekblad2:26
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad16:39
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Glass – Stalberg9:05
xG 0.62–0.05 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello11:52
xG 0.62–0.33 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Fast10:48
xG 0.37–0.71 (34%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
- Staal – Hayes – Miller8:51
xG 0.09–0.45 (16%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – McDonagh14:26
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi2:03
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Yandle – Girardi13:11
xG 0.50–0.49 (51%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).