Mon, Mar 21, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Los Angeles Kings 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 011 | 06 | 213 | 230 |
| NSH | 010 | 317 | 23 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:37NSHJames NealAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 13:17NSHMike FisherPPAssists: James Neal, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.53 xG0–2
- P2 15:23NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Craig Smith, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.25 xG0–3
- P3 0:32LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Rob Scuderi, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 8:00LAKAlec MartinezAssists: Tanner Pearson, Anze Kopitar · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 11:45NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Shea Weber, Calle Jarnkrok · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 19:31NSHRoman JosiENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:13NSHShea Weber: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:30LAKTyler Toffoli: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:49LAKTyler Toffoli: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 3:30NSHRoman Josi: Interference2 min
- P3 12:35NSHEric Nystrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:03NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Pearson3:24
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 2–0
- King – Andreoff – Shore5:46
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Lucic – Toffoli3:30
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Clifford – Andreoff – Shore2:18
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez12:54
xG 0.82–0.64 (56%)attempts 20–11goals 1–2
- Muzzin – Doughty2:28
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Martinez – Schenn2:16
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Forsberg9:59
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen9:37
xG 0.37–0.07 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 2–1
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson8:33
xG 0.52–0.25 (67%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Neal – Wilson – Johansen2:40
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi19:55
xG 1.26–0.40 (76%)attempts 17–22goals 2–2
- Jackman – Ellis13:11
xG 0.78–0.50 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Granberg9:40
xG 0.17–0.15 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).