Tue, Mar 22, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 29 | 09 | 225 |
| TBL | 215 | 212 | 27 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:47TBLErik CondraAssists: Ondrej Palat, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 9:55TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: JT Brown · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–2
- P2 0:33TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 8:08DETJustin AbdelkaderPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 15:25DETDarren HelmAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 17:42TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 1:03TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 16:56TBLErik CondraAssists: Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:17TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:17DETKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:34DETLuke Glendening: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:21DETBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:21TBLJT Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:34TBLAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:41DETMike Green: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:53DETJustin Abdelkader: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:47DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:21TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:21DETGustav Nyquist: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Larkin2:18
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Richards – Glendening – Athanasiou9:11
xG 0.16–0.21 (42%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Datsyuk – Helm – Mantha9:25
xG 0.47–0.72 (39%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan9:01
xG 0.23–0.61 (27%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson7:31
xG 0.32–0.23 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 0–2
- Green – Smith15:48
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser3:14
xG 0.05–0.06 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Condra – Palat2:13
xG 0.53–0.02 (97%)attempts 3–2goals 2–0
- Namestnikov – Brown – Paquette10:14
xG 0.36–0.09 (79%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Marchessault11:10
xG 0.54–0.27 (67%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Kucherov10:33
xG 0.84–0.63 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Sustr10:36
xG 0.79–0.19 (81%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Carle – Stralman3:45
xG 0.53–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Carle – Sustr2:26
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).