Tue, Mar 22, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 2, Arizona Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 114 | 18 | 07 | 229 |
| ARI | 113 | 211 | 17 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:38ARIAlex TanguayAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 9:04EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P2 12:22ARIMartin HanzalPPAssists: Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 17:02ARITobias RiederGWGAssists: Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 17:56EDMMark LetestuPPAssists: Andrej Sekera, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 19:14ARIMax DomiENAssists: Martin Hanzal, Jiri Sekac · Wrist, 0.76 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:24ARIMichael Stone: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:20ARIAnthony Duclair: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:15EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:21EDMAnton Lander: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:23EDMJordan Eberle: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:34ARIShane Doan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:13ARIAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHall – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl6:52
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Eberle – Pakarinen – McDavid12:05
xG 0.54–0.57 (48%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Lander – Kassian7:00
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Kassian – Hall – Draisaitl4:39
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Fayne11:30
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Oesterle19:15
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 25–12goals 0–1
- Sekera – Nurse2:10
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Richardson – Rieder10:20
xG 0.50–0.23 (69%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Tanguay – Vermette – Duclair9:21
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Hanzal – Domi – Sekac11:53
xG 0.55–0.57 (49%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Gordon – Martinook – Plotnikov8:58
xG 0.21–0.24 (46%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy14:42
xG 0.76–0.58 (57%)attempts 12–16goals 2–0
- Michalek – Dahlbeck14:06
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Stone – Connauton17:08
xG 0.64–0.71 (48%)attempts 26–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).