Thu, Mar 24, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vancouver Canucks 2, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 211 | 06 | 08 | 00 | 1 | 225 |
| NSH | 09 | 06 | 211 | 06 | 2 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:52VANBo HorvatAssists: Sven Baertschi · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P1 14:39VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Snap, 0.31 xG2–0
- P3 11:56NSHJames NealAssists: Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 13:08NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 2. VAN Sven Baertschi stopped
- 3. NSH Ryan Johansen scored
- 4. VAN Jared McCann scored
- 5. NSH James Neal stopped
- 6. VAN Linden Vey stopped
- 7. NSH Craig Smith scored
- 8. VAN Bo Horvat stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:07NSHEric Nystrom: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:24NSHShea Weber: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:43VANDan Hamhuis: Holding the stick2 min
- OT 3:01VANBrendan Gaunce: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Gaunce – McCann8:02
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen13:27
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Virtanen8:41
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Burrows – Vey – Etem12:07
xG 0.17–0.53 (24%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Weber19:17
xG 0.76–0.54 (58%)attempts 24–21goals 1–0
- Biega – Bartkowski14:52
xG 0.40–0.52 (43%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Hutton – Tryamkin15:51
xG 0.20–0.65 (24%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Wilson – Arvidsson6:39
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen11:15
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Nystrom – Salomaki – Sissons3:58
xG 0.08–0.09 (48%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Neal – Wilson – Johansen4:34
xG 0.06–0.13 (33%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm10:38
xG 0.73–0.21 (77%)attempts 17–5goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Granberg8:06
xG 0.33–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Jackman – Ellis8:07
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).