Thu, Mar 24, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 119 | 319 | 445 |
| COL | 015 | 110 | 19 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:05COLNick HoldenAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Mikkel Boedker · Deflected, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 12:36PHIPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Andrew MacDonald · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 6:13COLJohn MitchellAssists: Andreas Martinsen, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 14:17PHIRadko GudasAssists: Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.00 xG2–2
- P3 14:36PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:55PHIRyan WhiteENAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.77 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:51COLJohn Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:37PHIJakub Voracek: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:34COLFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00PHISean Couturier: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00COLBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grigorenko won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Simmonds – Schenn11:57
xG 1.20–0.22 (85%)attempts 20–17goals 1–0
- Gagner – Read – Cousins9:16
xG 0.55–0.25 (68%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare6:55
xG 0.49–0.66 (42%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Voracek – Couturier – Raffl12:30
xG 0.17–0.43 (29%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas15:40
xG 1.04–0.46 (69%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere15:18
xG 0.74–0.34 (68%)attempts 21–16goals 1–1
- Streit – Schultz12:45
xG 0.51–0.63 (45%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Skille – Rantanen5:19
xG 0.50–0.14 (78%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Matthias – Landeskog11:41
xG 0.66–0.90 (42%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
- Comeau – Boedker – Grigorenko12:29
xG 0.15–0.51 (23%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Martinsen12:18
xG 0.28–0.70 (28%)attempts 7–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRedmond – Bigras3:26
xG 0.50–0.01 (99%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie20:15
xG 0.61–0.61 (50%)attempts 13–21goals 1–1
- Johnson – Bigras2:34
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).