Thu, Mar 24, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 6, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 04 | 49 | 29 | 622 |
| SJS | 212 | 19 | 05 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Roman Polak, Nick Spaling · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 11:41SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Logan Couture · Slap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 1:39EDMLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Adam Clendening, Mark Letestu · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 8:18EDMTaylor HallUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 9:03EDMAdam ClendeningAssists: Patrick Maroon, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 12:26SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–3
- P2 18:04EDMPatrick MaroonGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 12:54EDMJordan EberleAssists: Patrick Maroon, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 19:54EDMTaylor HallENAssists: Andrej Sekera, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.65 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:11SJSMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:11EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:05EDMZack Kassian: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 14:19EDMLuke Gazdic: Holding2 min
- P2 11:45EDMPatrick Maroon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:55EDMZack Kassian: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:55EDMZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:55EDMZack Kassian: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 17:08SJSMelker Karlsson: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Eberle – McDavid14:42
xG 0.93–0.19 (83%)attempts 22–12goals 2–0
- Korpikoski – Letestu – Kassian2:43
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Korpikoski – Letestu – Pakarinen6:04
xG 0.03–0.05 (37%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Letestu – Yakupov5:19
xG 0.03–0.10 (22%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReinhart – Oesterle14:11
xG 0.75–0.12 (86%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Clendening – Nurse13:29
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 3–0
- Fayne – Reinhart2:22
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSpaling – Haley – Wingels3:33
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Couture – Spaling – Wingels2:17
xG 0.17–0.07 (73%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Marleau – Ward – Tierney5:36
xG 0.23–0.13 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl14:16
xG 0.56–0.57 (50%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – DeMelo13:57
xG 0.63–0.39 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
- Polak – Dillon14:48
xG 0.10–0.03 (76%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Martin – Burns17:10
xG 0.43–0.81 (35%)attempts 17–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).