Sat, Mar 26, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Minnesota Wild 4, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 217 | 210 | 435 |
| COL | 011 | 011 | 07 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:27MINZach PariseGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 19:38MINJordan SchroederAssists: Justin Fontaine, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 4:55MINZach ParisePPAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 11:06MINMikael GranlundENAssists: Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:51MINJustin Fontaine: Holding2 min
- P2 6:03MINRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:15COLChris Bigras: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:50COLAndreas Martinsen: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:24MINCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:27MINJustin Fontaine: Holding2 min
- P3 4:14COLShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:28COLMikkel Boedker: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:56MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:36COLAndreas Martinsen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Schroeder – Fontaine6:06
xG 0.25–0.18 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Vanek – Jones – Granlund8:28
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle8:13
xG 0.12–0.08 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter7:31
xG 0.30–0.66 (31%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon14:25
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Scandella – Brodin14:39
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Reilly – Dumba10:21
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Skille – Rantanen7:24
xG 0.56–0.04 (93%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Martinsen8:30
xG 0.42–0.07 (86%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Matthias – Landeskog7:51
xG 0.09–0.43 (17%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Comeau – Boedker – Grigorenko7:39
xG 0.19–0.61 (24%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Redmond3:16
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie7:31
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Holden – Bigras4:18
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).