Sat, Mar 26, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 5, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 48 | 04 | 523 |
| MTL | 17 | 110 | 09 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:04NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Derek Stepan, Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 12:26MTLLars EllerAssists: Greg Pateryn, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 1:32NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Chris Kreider, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–1
- P2 8:19NYRChris KreiderPPGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 10:42NYRChris KreiderUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–1
- P2 15:38MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: David Desharnais, Sven Andrighetto · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–2
- P2 19:19NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Derick Brassard · Backhand, 0.16 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 17:10NYRChris Kreider: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:44NYRJesper Fast: Holding2 min
- P2 7:37MTLAndrei Markov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:10MTLAlexei Emelin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:07NYRDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:08NYRViktor Stalberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:07NYRKevin Klein: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:02MTLDavid Desharnais: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:49MTLTorrey Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P3 12:49NYRChris Kreider: Embellishment2 min
- P3 15:15NYRKeith Yandle: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Glass – Stalberg6:13
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Kreider9:11
xG 0.68–0.41 (62%)attempts 11–11goals 2–1
- Stepan – Zuccarello – Miller9:01
xG 0.27–0.09 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Hayes – Fast10:08
xG 0.36–0.51 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – McDonagh12:21
xG 0.87–0.55 (61%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Yandle – Girardi11:42
xG 0.34–0.12 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Boyle – Yandle3:55
xG 0.08–0.02 (81%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Danault – Andrighetto8:53
xG 0.75–0.33 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Mitchell – Eller10:20
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Brown – Matteau – McCarron8:07
xG 0.05–0.33 (13%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Byron – Pacioretty – Galchenyuk6:55
xG 0.05–0.79 (6%)attempts 3–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Dietz – Hanley7:26
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Emelin – Pateryn2:25
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Beaulieu13:30
xG 0.41–0.63 (39%)attempts 11–7goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).