Sat, Mar 26, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 211 | 110 | 26 | 527 |
| TBL | 112 | 012 | 111 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Nikita Nesterov, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 13:36FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 18:02FLAJaromir JagrPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 15:53FLAJiri HudlerGWGAssists: Alexander Petrovic, Nick Bjugstad · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 4:02FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 16:48TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Brian Boyle, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 19:35FLAJussi JokinenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:25FLABrian Campbell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 8:57FLAJiri Hudler: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 16:33TBLSteven Stamkos: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:56TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- P2 10:38TBLBrian Boyle: Kneeing2 min
- P2 13:01FLAAaron Ekblad: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 17:47TBLAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:27FLASteven Kampfer: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:27TBLErik Condra: Embellishment2 min
- P3 15:50FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:14FLASteven Kampfer: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paquette won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov10:05
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck10:30
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Hudler – Purcell – Bjugstad7:33
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Wilson – McKegg – Shaw7:04
xG 0.06–0.35 (14%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Petrovic8:15
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 3–0
- Campbell – Ekblad14:23
xG 0.35–0.54 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Kulikov13:37
xG 0.29–0.54 (35%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Marchessault6:58
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Palat3:25
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Brown – Paquette5:10
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Boyle – Brown – Paquette2:03
xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Nesterov3:07
xG 0.31–0.04 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Carle – Sustr4:14
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Coburn – Koekkoek2:50
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).