Tue, Mar 29, 2016·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 39 | 04 | 112 | 05 | 0 | 430 |
| PIT | 018 | 414 | 011 | 03 | 2 | 546 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:26BUFMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Johan Larsson, Casey Nelson · Backhand, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 14:05BUFRyan O'ReillySHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–0
- P1 18:58BUFJake McCabeAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Zach Bogosian · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 1:28PITBen LovejoyAssists: Bryan Rust, Tom Kuhnhackl · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 5:55PITConor ShearyAssists: Beau Bennett, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 18:47PITTom KuhnhacklSHAssists: Matt Cullen, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
- P2 19:11PITNick BoninoSHAssists: Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 2:13BUFZach BogosianPPAssists: Johan Larsson, Casey Nelson · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 2. BUF Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 3. PIT Kris Letang scored
- 4. BUF Jack Eichel stopped
- 5. PIT Phil Kessel scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:43PITCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:01BUFHudson Fasching: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:26BUFJosh Gorges: Holding2 min
- P1 18:52PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:52BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:14BUFHudson Fasching: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:57PITEric Fehr: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:26PITBen Lovejoy: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Girgensons – Fasching3:50
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Legwand – Moulson – O'Reilly4:27
xG 0.17–0.17 (51%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Reinhart – Eichel4:56
xG 0.12–0.16 (44%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson10:24
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pysyk – Nelson10:26
xG 0.13–0.27 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Gorges – Ristolainen17:50
xG 0.33–0.58 (37%)attempts 11–25goals 0–1
- Bogosian – McCabe14:28
xG 0.36–0.74 (33%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist14:08
xG 0.67–0.38 (64%)attempts 28–9goals 0–0
- Fehr – Bennett – Sheary4:46
xG 0.28–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Cullen – Rust – Kuhnhackl9:15
xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin9:54
xG 0.24–0.24 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pouliot6:10
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Daley – Letang14:00
xG 0.52–0.26 (67%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Cole – Schultz10:22
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).