Tue, Mar 29, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 26 | 215 | 529 |
| FLA | 011 | 110 | 113 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:11TORMichael GrabnerSHAssists: Connor Brown, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 6:23FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:36TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Milan Michalek, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 18:14TORNazem KadriPPGWGAssists: Connor Brown, Tyler Bozak · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 6:34TORPA ParenteauPPAssists: Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 11:26FLAGreg McKeggAssists: Teddy Purcell, Alexander Petrovic · Tip-in, 0.21 xG4–2
- P3 17:21TORNazem KadriENAssists: Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.57 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:57TORMilan Michalek: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:20FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:34TORMorgan Rielly: Interference2 min
- P1 19:38TORConnor Carrick: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:38FLATeddy Purcell: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:55FLAJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:14TORConnor Carrick: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:15FLALogan Shaw: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:51FLAGreg McKegg: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Bozak – Brown9:40
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Hyman – Nylander9:47
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Michalek – Grabner – Kadri10:19
xG 0.13–0.36 (27%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Boyes – Laich – Greening6:59
xG 0.09–0.60 (14%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCorrado – Valiev13:13
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Carrick12:46
xG 0.16–0.41 (29%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Marincin – Rielly12:40
xG 0.23–0.99 (19%)attempts 7–14goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Purcell – McKegg3:06
xG 0.52–0.12 (81%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov10:21
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Hudler – Purcell – Bjugstad6:51
xG 0.26–0.07 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck4:27
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Petrovic9:06
xG 0.83–0.31 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Kindl – Ekblad2:45
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Kulikov11:19
xG 0.39–0.19 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).