Thu, Mar 31, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Ottawa Senators 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 011 | 26 | 15 | 322 |
| MIN | 07 | 110 | 18 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:44OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Bobby Ryan, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 11:13MINZach PariseAssists: Marco Scandella, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 14:34OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 4:33MINErik HaulaAssists: Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 16:03OTTCody CeciGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 18:19OTTMarc Methot: Holding2 min
- P3 11:35OTTMarc Methot: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:02MINMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Zibanejad – Puempel9:45
xG 0.30–0.10 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Ryan – Smith – Pageau12:13
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Gomez – Neil – Dzingel6:10
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Neil – Hoffman – Zibanejad2:20
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Claesson19:13
xG 0.59–0.06 (91%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Methot – Karlsson2:11
xG 0.03–0.06 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Wideman – Harpur12:12
xG 0.21–0.32 (39%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Haula – Niederreiter13:28
xG 0.42–0.16 (73%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle14:03
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Schroeder – Zucker – Granlund2:22
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Zucker – Granlund – Fontaine8:54
xG 0.04–0.20 (17%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Dumba3:49
xG 0.18–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin5:53
xG 0.16–0.09 (66%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Scandella – Dumba5:35
xG 0.19–0.12 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).