Thu, Mar 31, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Arizona Coyotes 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 18 | 013 | 011 | 132 |
| DAL | 111 | 210 | 112 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:07ARIMartin HanzalAssists: Max Domi, Anthony Duclair · Snap, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 18:05DALPatrick EavesAssists: Colton Sceviour, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 0:11DALRadek FaksaGWGAssists: Ales Hemsky, Antoine Roussel · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 10:43DALJamie BennAssists: Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 18:49DALPatrick SharpENAssists: John Klingberg, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:52ARIBrad Richardson: Interference2 min
- P1 6:12DALJamie Benn: Boarding2 min
- P1 6:12ARIAntoine Vermette: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:55DALPatrik Nemeth: Delaying game2 min
- P2 19:21ARIAlex Grant: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:21DALColton Sceviour: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:21DALColton Sceviour: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:04ARINicklas Grossmann: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:23ARIEric Selleck: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:23DALJordie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:14ARIKlas Dahlbeck: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestChipchura – Duclair – Domi6:54
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Martinook9:26
xG 0.50–0.43 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Gordon – Chipchura – Selleck4:12
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Vermette – Martinook3:12
xG 0.01–0.02 (39%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrant – Dahlbeck10:09
xG 0.68–0.17 (80%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Murphy16:16
xG 0.76–0.66 (53%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Michalek – Dahlbeck2:03
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Roussel – Faksa9:50
xG 0.65–0.27 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Sharp – Benn – Eakin11:16
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Eaves – Sceviour7:46
xG 0.27–0.43 (38%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Spezza – Janmark – Nichushkin10:01
xG 0.05–0.37 (13%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg16:45
xG 0.99–0.77 (56%)attempts 21–13goals 3–0
- Benn – Nemeth12:12
xG 0.51–0.33 (61%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Oduya – Johns14:12
xG 0.43–0.53 (45%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).