Thu, Mar 31, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vancouver Canucks 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 210 | 09 | 27 | 426 |
| SJS | 013 | 113 | 18 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09VANDaniel SedinAssists: Jannik Hansen, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 13:55VANBo HorvatUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 14:30SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 10:58SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 14:57VANJannik HansenGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 19:39VANMarkus GranlundENAssists: Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:21SJSMelker Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:09VANHenrik Sedin: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:00VANJared McCann: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:30SJSDylan DeMelo: Interference2 min
- P2 13:55VANJannik Hansen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:30VANAlex Biega: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:00SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:00SJSDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Hansen9:48
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Burrows – Vey – Granlund2:48
xG 0.00–0.00 (68%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Vey – Granlund – Baertschi3:06
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Higgins – Etem – Horvat6:08
xG 0.04–0.19 (17%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Bartkowski13:31
xG 0.74–0.59 (56%)attempts 16–15goals 2–1
- Hutton – Tryamkin11:05
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Bartkowski – Tanev2:07
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Wingels – Karlsson8:36
xG 0.26–0.14 (66%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl10:44
xG 0.40–0.27 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Zubrus – Spaling – Tierney6:29
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Ward – Couture – Donskoi11:06
xG 0.57–0.70 (45%)attempts 14–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Dillon15:53
xG 0.48–0.09 (84%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Martin – Burns10:57
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
- Braun – DeMelo13:13
xG 0.37–0.62 (37%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).