Sat, Apr 2, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 117 | 19 | 235 |
| PHI | 010 | 213 | 113 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:30PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 11:14PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–2
- P2 17:48OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Mike Hoffman, Cody Ceci · Slap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 7:15PHIWayne SimmondsPPGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–3
- P3 12:28OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Bobby Ryan · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:31OTTScott Gomez: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:04OTTChris Wideman: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:04PHINick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:51OTTAlex Chiasson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:05OTTChris Wideman: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:35OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:57OTTCody Ceci: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:34PHIRadko Gudas: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:34PHIRadko Gudas: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:34OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Zibanejad – Puempel8:53
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Ryan – Smith – Pageau10:41
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Gomez – Neil – Dzingel4:19
xG 0.13–0.12 (51%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Paul – Lazar9:05
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wideman3:05
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Claesson14:40
xG 0.39–0.41 (48%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Kostka – Ceci14:16
xG 0.51–0.67 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Read – Cousins11:01
xG 0.58–0.19 (75%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Raffl13:10
xG 0.43–0.15 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn9:21
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare9:30
xG 0.69–0.80 (46%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gostisbehere14:04
xG 0.97–0.40 (71%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Streit – Schultz17:02
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas14:52
xG 0.63–0.57 (52%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).