Sat, Apr 2, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 4, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 27 | 212 | 05 | 424 |
| NYR | 09 | 211 | 116 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:07BUFRyan O'ReillyAssists: Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.33 xG1–0
- P1 12:59BUFRyan O'ReillyAssists: Jack Eichel, Mark Pysyk · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 0:46BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Johan Larsson, Brian Gionta · Snap, 0.30 xG3–0
- P2 2:58NYRKevin HayesAssists: Eric Staal, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 13:09BUFMatt MoulsonGWGAssists: Cal O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–1
- P2 19:25NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 4:52NYRDerek StepanAssists: Chris Kreider, Kevin Klein · Tip-in, 0.21 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:06NYRDominic Moore: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:55NYRJesper Fast: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:48BUFJack Eichel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:12BUFCasey Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:12BUFMark Pysyk: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Moore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Girgensons – Fasching9:06
xG 0.95–0.43 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Deslauriers – Reinhart – Eichel11:10
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson13:50
xG 0.59–0.42 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Legwand – Moulson – O'Reilly5:22
xG 0.18–0.63 (22%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen18:14
xG 1.25–0.71 (64%)attempts 26–17goals 1–1
- Bogosian – McCabe18:48
xG 1.20–0.86 (58%)attempts 14–22goals 2–0
- Pysyk – Nelson11:10
xG 0.36–0.68 (35%)attempts 4–9goals 1–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Miller11:31
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello10:35
xG 0.52–0.40 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Moore – Glass – Stalberg5:58
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Staal – Hayes – Fast11:10
xG 0.37–0.93 (28%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Yandle8:35
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Klein – Yandle5:34
xG 0.45–0.26 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 2–1
- Boyle – Staal3:53
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).