Sat, Apr 2, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 16 | 313 | 18 | 527 |
| CAR | 116 | 02 | 09 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:53CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Victor Rask, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:17CBJBrandon SaadUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 6:36CBJBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Sonny Milano, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 18:43CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Alexander Wennberg, David Savard · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 19:59CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.59 xG4–1
- P3 9:21CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Matt Calvert, David Savard · Snap, 0.11 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:35CBJAlexander Wennberg: Holding2 min
- P1 15:37CBJDalton Prout: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:55CARElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:32CARRyan Murphy: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:36CBJDalton Prout: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:36CARNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:18CARVictor Rask: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:51CARJaccob Slavin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Wennberg – Milano9:43
xG 0.46–0.08 (84%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Bjorkstrand7:19
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Campbell – Calvert – Karlsson2:46
xG 0.03–0.04 (45%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Campbell – Foligno5:48
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Jones8:35
xG 0.41–0.11 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Prout – Jones3:49
xG 0.37–0.07 (83%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Murray – Kukan2:28
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Nordstrom – Brown2:35
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- McClement – Malone – Woods4:11
xG 0.23–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Nordstrom – Lindholm6:59
xG 0.11–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Terry – Skinner – Rask9:49
xG 0.35–0.40 (46%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Hanifin5:29
xG 0.52–0.37 (58%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Faulk – Slavin9:18
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Slavin – Pesce6:00
xG 0.06–0.09 (41%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).