Sat, Apr 2, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 3, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 011 | 213 | 05 | 1 | 340 |
| NSH | 110 | 115 | 04 | 01 | 0 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:07NSHShea WeberAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 1:38NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: James Neal, Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 2:19SJSTomas HertlAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 10:31SJSTomas HertlAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 2. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 3. NSH Ryan Johansen stopped
- 4. SJS Joonas Donskoi stopped
- 5. NSH Craig Smith stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:53NSHMiikka Salomaki: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:39SJSTommy Wingels: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:17SJSDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:55NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:18NSHMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:18SJSTomas Hertl: Roughing2 min
- OT 0:50NSHJames Neal: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Tierney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWard – Couture – Donskoi11:10
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Marleau – Wingels – Karlsson6:30
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl13:18
xG 0.47–0.39 (55%)attempts 24–7goals 2–1
- Marleau – Spaling – Wingels5:21
xG 0.08–0.03 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – DeMelo13:13
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Martin – Burns14:04
xG 0.69–0.49 (59%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Polak – Dillon15:52
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Jarnkrok – Johansen12:26
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson8:27
xG 0.13–0.25 (33%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Salomaki – Sissons8:04
xG 0.18–0.34 (35%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg12:39
xG 0.26–0.64 (28%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi15:50
xG 0.59–0.40 (59%)attempts 15–15goals 1–2
- Jackman – Elliott12:57
xG 0.21–0.33 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Granberg15:47
xG 0.25–0.73 (26%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).