Sat, Apr 2, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Washington Capitals 0, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 014 | 010 | 031 |
| ARI | 08 | 08 | 311 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 5:18ARIShane DoanGWGAssists: Max Domi · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 5:45ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Alex Tanguay, Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 13:58ARIBrad RichardsonAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:14WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:32WSHNate Schmidt: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:32ARIMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:37ARIJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:46ARIKevin Connauton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky11:37
xG 0.72–0.49 (59%)attempts 19–11goals 0–2
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Johansson10:55
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Richards – Winnik – Galiev8:50
xG 0.16–0.26 (37%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson11:03
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson9:12
xG 0.62–0.37 (63%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Orpik – Orlov7:37
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Orlov – Schmidt7:07
xG 0.27–0.24 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestGordon – Chipchura – Martinook10:16
xG 0.79–0.38 (68%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Vermette – Duclair9:10
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Doan – Richardson – Domi11:12
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 11–19goals 2–0
- Tikhonov – Rieder – Dauphin10:19
xG 0.08–0.28 (21%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrant – Dahlbeck10:46
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy18:24
xG 0.52–0.60 (46%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Michalek – Connauton18:39
xG 0.58–1.11 (34%)attempts 19–28goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).