Sun, Apr 3, 2016·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 06 | 113 | 111 | 230 |
| PIT | 216 | 110 | 313 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:38PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 16:43PITBeau BennettAssists: Conor Sheary, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 10:34PITPatric HornqvistGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 19:18PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Claude Giroux, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 4:14PITCarl HagelinAssists: Nick Bonino, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 8:04PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 9:43PITEric FehrAssists: Matt Cullen, Tom Kuhnhackl · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
- P3 18:21PITEric FehrENAssists: Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:21PITIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P1 15:03PHIWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:18PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Holding2 min
- P3 17:53PITNick Bonino: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Raffl14:53
xG 0.89–0.47 (66%)attempts 13–20goals 1–1
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare7:34
xG 0.15–0.40 (28%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn13:55
xG 0.61–0.93 (40%)attempts 19–20goals 1–1
- Gagner – Read – Cousins12:04
xG 0.05–0.46 (11%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas16:16
xG 0.64–0.50 (56%)attempts 24–14goals 0–1
- Streit – Schultz12:59
xG 0.51–0.87 (37%)attempts 9–24goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere17:57
xG 0.26–0.75 (25%)attempts 10–24goals 2–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl12:55
xG 0.55–0.32 (64%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Bennett – Sundqvist – Sheary6:15
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist14:17
xG 0.93–0.83 (53%)attempts 24–13goals 1–0
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin13:55
xG 0.46–0.51 (48%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz11:43
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Letang – Cole2:17
xG 0.25–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Daley – Letang19:09
xG 0.74–0.93 (44%)attempts 27–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).