Mon, Apr 4, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Florida Panthers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 317 | 110 | 436 |
| TOR | 07 | 07 | 312 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:34FLANick BjugstadAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.37 xG1–0
- P2 10:31FLARocco GrimaldiAssists: Jiri Hudler, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 13:11FLARocco GrimaldiAssists: Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 5:50TORColin GreeningPPAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 8:54TORTJ BrennanAssists: Rich Clune, Brad Boyes · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 9:30FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 11:53TORColin GreeningAssists: Tyler Bozak, PA Parenteau · Snap, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:45TORTJ Brennan: Holding2 min
- P2 1:55TORKasperi Kapanen: Holding2 min
- P2 5:08TORFrank Corrado: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:28TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:23TORRich Clune: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:50FLAErik Gudbranson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:13FLAJaromir Jagr: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gauthier won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Bjugstad9:15
xG 1.24–0.13 (90%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov13:36
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Wilson – Howden6:46
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Hudler – Purcell – Grimaldi8:27
xG 0.17–0.27 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad13:30
xG 1.40–0.18 (89%)attempts 19–7goals 3–1
- Kulikov – Gudbranson12:30
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Kindl – Kampfer12:04
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBozak – Lindberg – Kapanen7:07
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Boyes – Clune – Froese4:53
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Parenteau – Bozak – Lindberg3:49
xG 0.07–0.02 (74%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Greening – Nylander – Kapanen3:34
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brennan – Campbell9:11
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Marincin – Rielly12:34
xG 0.21–0.48 (31%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Corrado10:20
xG 0.23–1.26 (16%)attempts 9–18goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).