Tue, Apr 5, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Boston Bruins 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 18 | 09 | 010 | 01 | 1 | 228 |
| BOS | 010 | 016 | 17 | 03 | 0 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:54CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Justin Faulk, Nathan Gerbe · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P3 1:45BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. BOS Ryan Spooner stopped
- 2. CAR Riley Nash stopped
- 3. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
- 4. CAR Victor Rask stopped
- 5. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
- 6. CAR Elias Lindholm stopped
- 7. BOS Loui Eriksson stopped
- 8. CAR Sergey Tolchinsky stopped
- 9. BOS Torey Krug stopped
- 10. CAR Noah Hanifin scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:53BOSJimmy Hayes: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:53CARBrad Malone: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:24CARNoah Hanifin: Holding2 min
- P1 14:42CARChris Terry: Holding2 min
- P2 6:34BOSMatt Beleskey: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:01BOSLoui Eriksson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:04CARJay McClement: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:31BOSLoui Eriksson: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:26CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:26BOSColin Miller: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Nash – Lindholm2:32
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Tolchinsky2:26
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Terry – Lindholm – Tolchinsky4:30
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Skinner – Rask7:12
xG 0.09–0.14 (41%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Slavin13:29
xG 0.52–0.24 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Slavin2:07
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Murphy14:37
xG 0.51–0.75 (40%)attempts 13–22goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Bergeron – Marchand7:41
xG 0.22–0.08 (72%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Krejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak6:06
xG 0.34–0.31 (53%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Hayes – Ferraro – Acciari3:06
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Spooner – Vatrano3:48
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Miller6:21
xG 0.46–0.14 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Chara – Miller9:55
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Chara – Miller6:50
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).