Tue, Apr 5, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 3, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 16 | 113 | 19 | 328 |
| NSH | 210 | 08 | 210 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:15NSHColin WilsonAssists: James Neal, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 10:19NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.45 xG0–2
- P1 16:12COLMikkel BoedkerAssists: Tyson Barrie, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 17:30COLJarome IginlaAssists: Shawn Matthias, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 0:36NSHMike FisherAssists: Roman Josi, Colin Wilson · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 1:58COLShawn MatthiasAssists: Zach Redmond, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 4:17NSHCraig SmithGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:48NSHCody Bass: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:48COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:52COLZach Redmond: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 9:19COLFrancois Beauchemin: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:50NSHMattias Ekholm: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:49NSHFilip Forsberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:03NSHRyan Johansen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Iginla – Mitchell – Matthias11:18
xG 0.58–0.57 (50%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- McLeod – Skille – Agozzino3:32
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog15:03
xG 0.11–0.44 (19%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Boedker – Duchene – Grigorenko13:20
xG 0.31–0.69 (31%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRedmond – Zadorov7:24
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Holden2:42
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Holden16:44
xG 0.56–0.68 (45%)attempts 18–18goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Forsberg11:33
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson12:40
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Bass6:01
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen8:28
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Granberg13:17
xG 0.37–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Weber – Josi16:42
xG 0.82–0.48 (63%)attempts 19–19goals 1–2
- Ellis – Ekholm3:37
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).