Wed, Apr 6, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 212 | 314 | 532 |
| TOR | 09 | 18 | 010 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:43TORMorgan RiellySHAssists: Frederik Gauthier, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 11:13CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 17:31CBJBrandon DubinskyGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson, Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 8:43CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Brandon Saad, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 9:39CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Cam Atkinson · Backhand, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 12:50CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Matt Calvert, Ryan Murray · Snap, 0.09 xG5–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:10CBJRyan Murray: Holding2 min
- P2 0:44TORPA Parenteau: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:46CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:13TORSam Carrick: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Gauthier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson7:59
xG 0.84–0.19 (82%)attempts 14–6goals 3–0
- Campbell – Karlsson – Anderson7:15
xG 0.50–0.06 (89%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Saad – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg10:29
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Prout15:48
xG 0.80–0.45 (64%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
- Murray – Jones18:16
xG 0.47–0.32 (60%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Savard – Kukan14:29
xG 0.76–0.61 (55%)attempts 18–14goals 3–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Froese – Carrick9:49
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Greening – Nylander – Kapanen13:27
xG 0.38–0.45 (45%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Bozak – Lindberg13:21
xG 0.54–0.63 (46%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- Laich – Grabner – Gauthier8:19
xG 0.12–0.68 (15%)attempts 6–8goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestBrennan – Campbell10:31
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Brennan – Corrado4:11
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Campbell2:00
xG 0.03–0.06 (28%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).