Thu, Apr 7, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Anaheim Ducks 1, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 15 | 07 | 08 | 120 |
| LAK | 09 | 215 | 07 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:11ANARyan KeslerAssists: Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 0:28LAKMilan LucicAssists: Tanner Pearson, Anze Kopitar · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 2:01LAKKris VersteegGWGAssists: Brayden McNabb, Kyle Clifford · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:05LAKKyle Clifford: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 2:05ANAChris Stewart: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:31LAKLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:31ANACorey Perry: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:31LAKJonathan Quick: Interference2 min
- P1 12:31ANAKorbinian Holzer: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:28LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
- P1 15:05ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:08LAKLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:08ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:13LAKKris Versteeg: Interference2 min
- P2 6:20ANAShawn Horcoff: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 9:06ANAChris Wagner: Elbowing2 min
- P2 18:52LAKAndy Andreoff: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Garbutt3:23
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Thompson – McGinn – Wagner2:06
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Perry – Thompson – McGinn2:02
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Thompson – Wagner – Garbutt4:41
xG 0.02–0.10 (15%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Manson – Lindholm15:29
xG 0.42–0.50 (46%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Stoner – Despres8:37
xG 0.09–0.29 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Despres – Fowler3:33
xG 0.04–0.25 (14%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Clifford – Andreoff6:40
xG 1.06–0.06 (95%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Carter – Brown – Toffoli11:34
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Lucic – Pearson9:51
xG 0.51–0.07 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Lewis – King9:49
xG 0.08–0.15 (33%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb15:10
xG 1.55–0.16 (91%)attempts 23–7goals 2–0
- Scuderi – McBain8:29
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- McBain – Muzzin2:27
xG 0.18–0.02 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).