Fri, Apr 8, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 114 | 26 | 110 | 430 |
| BUF | 08 | 118 | 09 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:45CBJMatt CalvertPPAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 13:37BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Matt Moulson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 15:16CBJNick FolignoGWGAssists: Boone Jenner, Josh Anderson · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 17:25CBJDalton ProutAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 5:11CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.12 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:42BUFJake McCabe: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:25BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:03CBJMatt Calvert: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:23CBJDalton Prout: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:36CBJBrandon Saad: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:45CBJGregory Campbell: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Jenner – Anderson5:51
xG 0.20–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Campbell – Calvert – Karlsson2:53
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Campbell – Karlsson – Anderson3:45
xG 0.07–0.13 (33%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Jenner6:08
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Savard – Kukan15:48
xG 0.31–0.42 (42%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Falk – Prout13:17
xG 0.81–1.21 (40%)attempts 17–22goals 2–0
- Murray – Jones19:37
xG 0.24–0.70 (26%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Reinhart – Eichel10:06
xG 0.76–0.39 (66%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
- O'Reilly – Schneider – Girgensons7:54
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Legwand – Moulson – Rodrigues2:23
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Moulson – Reinhart – Eichel2:25
xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pysyk11:37
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen14:24
xG 0.71–0.28 (72%)attempts 23–11goals 0–1
- Colaiacovo – Ristolainen3:08
xG 0.67–0.25 (72%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).