Sat, Apr 9, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 04 | 05 | 119 |
| PHI | 114 | 113 | 19 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:57PITNick BoninoAssists: Carl Hagelin, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 18:57PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 16:58PHIWayne SimmondsGWGAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Mark Streit · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 19:02PHIPierre-Edouard BellemareENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.77 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:42PITBen Lovejoy: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:25PHINick Schultz: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:25PITConor Sheary: Embellishment2 min
- P2 13:43PHIJakub Voracek: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 2:28PITTom Sestito: Interference2 min
- P3 2:28PITTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:28PITTom Sestito: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 2:28PHIChris VandeVelde: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:08PITKael Mouillierat: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Cullen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Hornqvist – Sundqvist11:04
xG 0.51–0.27 (66%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Sestito – Mouillierat – Sheary7:45
xG 0.25–0.05 (82%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl8:37
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin9:19
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Pouliot12:57
xG 0.90–0.38 (70%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Daley – Dumoulin14:13
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Cole – Schultz12:27
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Gagner – Read – Cousins7:49
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Couturier – Raffl10:22
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare8:27
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Simmonds11:11
xG 0.60–0.91 (40%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gostisbehere14:23
xG 0.51–0.41 (56%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Streit – Schultz14:02
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Manning – Gudas13:24
xG 0.50–0.75 (40%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).