Sat, Apr 9, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 15 | 010 | 05 | 120 |
| NJD | 119 | 28 | 29 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:53TORPA ParenteauAssists: Brooks Laich, Andrew Campbell · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 9:10NJDDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Pavel Zacha · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 0:58NJDAdam HenriqueGWGAssists: Adam Larsson, Patrik Elias · Snap, 0.42 xG1–2
- P2 10:42NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, John Moore · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 17:04NJDKyle PalmieriENAssists: Patrik Elias, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.57 xG1–4
- P3 19:44NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:06NJDSteven Santini: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:09TORWilliam Nylander: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:53TORMorgan Rielly: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:37TORColin Greening: Interference2 min
- P2 12:16NJDPatrik Elias: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:06TORColin Greening: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:29NJDDevante Smith-Pelly: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:36TORMorgan Rielly: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:19TORLeo Komarov: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Parenteau – Bozak7:22
xG 0.57–0.07 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Komarov – Bozak2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Komarov – Grabner – Gauthier7:53
xG 0.13–0.15 (45%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Boyes – Froese – Carrick7:18
xG 0.16–0.31 (35%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarincin – Corrado2:11
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Brennan – Gardiner4:59
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Marincin3:33
xG 0.05–0.18 (20%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Smith-Pelly – Zacha4:27
xG 0.42–0.07 (85%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Gionta – Wood2:36
xG 0.28–0.05 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Kalinin5:04
xG 0.23–0.03 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Elias – Palmieri – Zacha2:11
xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson12:02
xG 0.59–0.07 (89%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Moore – Severson12:06
xG 0.67–0.31 (68%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Santini10:35
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).