Sat, Apr 9, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Buffalo Sabres 4, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 27 | 111 | 11 | 426 |
| NYI | 06 | 110 | 28 | 00 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:03NYIScott MayfieldAssists: Casey Cizikas, Steve Bernier · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 5:10BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 17:57BUFEvan RodriguesAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Nicolas Deslauriers · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 2:07NYIAlan QuineSHAssists: Bracken Kearns · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P3 5:57BUFBrian GiontaAssists: Hudson Fasching, Josh Gorges · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 13:34NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
- OT 2:46BUFBrian GiontaGWGAssists: Mark Pysyk, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:12NYIJohnny Boychuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:03BUFMatt Moulson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:55NYIScott Mayfield: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Reinhart – Eichel11:37
xG 0.60–0.23 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- O'Reilly – Deslauriers – Rodrigues8:11
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Legwand – Schneider – Fasching6:52
xG 0.03–0.12 (20%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Girgensons11:00
xG 0.11–0.58 (16%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pysyk15:23
xG 0.66–0.53 (55%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Gorges – Ristolainen17:16
xG 0.43–0.57 (43%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- McCabe – Nelson16:17
xG 0.42–0.67 (39%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKearns – Quine – Strome12:20
xG 0.82–0.31 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Tavares13:01
xG 0.69–0.45 (61%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Bailey – Nelson – Prince10:57
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Boulton – Bernier – Cizikas8:48
xG 0.03–0.46 (6%)attempts 2–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – de Haan14:27
xG 1.23–0.38 (77%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Leddy – Pulock15:34
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech13:47
xG 0.06–0.79 (7%)attempts 3–21goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).