Sat, Apr 9, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 115 | 17 | 08 | 230 |
| DAL | 06 | 213 | 15 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19NSHRyan EllisUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 8:23NSHCalle JarnkrokPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, James Neal · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 10:46DALJason SpezzaAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Johnny Oduya · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 13:05DALJason SpezzaPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 19:00DALJason SpezzaGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:09DALAntoine Roussel: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:33NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:45NSHAnthony Bitetto: Interference2 min
- P2 6:19DALCody Eakin: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:50DALAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:34NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:16NSHFilip Forsberg: Embellishment2 min
- P3 9:46DALCody Eakin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNystrom – Sissons – Arvidsson9:12
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Bass – Watson8:03
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Smith – Jarnkrok – Forsberg8:30
xG 0.11–0.23 (31%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Neal – Wilson – Johansen11:07
xG 0.15–0.59 (21%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Ellis14:55
xG 0.85–0.40 (68%)attempts 21–19goals 1–1
- Potter – Bitetto13:42
xG 0.80–0.59 (58%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Granberg15:24
xG 0.02–0.31 (6%)attempts 4–18goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Sharp – Nichushkin8:33
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Moen – Fiddler – Sceviour7:45
xG 0.20–0.05 (81%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Eakin9:00
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Sharp – Benn – Eakin4:12
xG 0.02–0.06 (23%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg15:58
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Russell – Demers14:24
xG 0.65–0.64 (50%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Oduya – Johns14:47
xG 0.28–0.71 (28%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).