Sat, Apr 9, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 3, Vancouver Canucks 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 010 | 116 | 212 | 00 | 2 | 338 |
| VAN | 112 | 04 | 28 | 04 | 3 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:01VANDerek DorsettAssists: Matt Bartkowski · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 13:46EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Nail Yakupov, Lauri Korpikoski · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 1:21VANEmerson EtemAssists: Derek Dorsett · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 7:46EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Taylor Hall, Iiro Pakarinen · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 15:52VANJannik HansenAssists: Matt Bartkowski, Alex Biega · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 18:33EDMPatrick MaroonPPAssists: Nail Yakupov, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. VAN Bo Horvat stopped
- 3. EDM Matt Hendricks stopped
- 4. VAN Alexandre Burrows scored
- 5. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored
- 6. VAN Jannik Hansen stopped
- 7. EDM Connor McDavid stopped
- 8. VAN Markus Granlund stopped
- 9. EDM Lauri Korpikoski stopped
- 10. VAN Daniel Sedin stopped
- 11. EDM Leon Draisaitl scored
- 12. VAN Jake Virtanen scored
- 13. EDM Patrick Maroon stopped
- 14. VAN Emerson Etem scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:32VANBo Horvat: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:28EDMAdam Pardy: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:35VANNikita Tryamkin: Holding2 min
- P2 10:46EDMTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:05VANBen Hutton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:33VANDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
- OT 4:53EDMTaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHall – Pakarinen – Nugent-Hopkins8:49
xG 0.50–0.30 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 1–2
- Korpikoski – Yakupov – Draisaitl11:13
xG 0.64–0.50 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian8:15
xG 0.18–0.10 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Maroon – Eberle – McDavid14:05
xG 0.37–0.75 (33%)attempts 7–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Nurse13:52
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Sekera – Fayne16:21
xG 0.74–0.67 (53%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Oesterle14:11
xG 0.56–0.61 (48%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Granlund – Zalewski10:27
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows14:19
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Gaunce – Kenins – Virtanen7:54
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Etem – Horvat9:55
xG 0.34–0.54 (38%)attempts 11–8goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Tanev14:06
xG 0.63–0.41 (61%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Hutton – Tryamkin16:40
xG 0.70–0.89 (44%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Biega – Bartkowski13:51
xG 0.33–0.62 (35%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).