Thu, Oct 13, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 2, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 02 | 18 | 111 | 221 |
| STL | 114 | 110 | 17 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:51STLAlexander SteenAssists: Robby Fabbri, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 3:03MINRyan SuterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 12:36STLNail YakupovAssists: Colton Parayko, Patrik Berglund · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 4:25STLMagnus PaajarviGWGAssists: Nail Yakupov, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 12:49MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Jason Zucker, Zac Dalpe · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:50STLScottie Upshall: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:50MINErik Haula: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:29MINMikko Koivu: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:22STLKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00STLColton Parayko: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:09STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:04MINJonas Brodin: Interference2 min
- P2 17:02MINChris Stewart: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:02MINChris Stewart: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:03STLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:21STLRobby Fabbri: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:21MINCharlie Coyle: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:39STLDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Parise – Coyle8:19
xG 0.65–0.26 (71%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Dalpe – Zucker – Pulkkinen4:23
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Stewart – Haula – Niederreiter6:47
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter2:55
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Brodin6:19
xG 0.54–0.05 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dumba5:04
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Reilly – Brodin3:34
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Paajarvi – Yakupov5:54
xG 0.49–0.08 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 2–1
- Perron – Lehtera – Tarasenko9:05
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves3:58
xG 0.01–0.01 (53%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Fabbri8:32
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko8:13
xG 0.56–0.35 (62%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson9:24
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo12:15
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).